The Power of the Youth Vote in the 2012 Presidential Election

With the Republican nominee all but decided, the question has become whether Obama or Romney will be the victor in November. I've already discussed the implications of "firsts" for the 2008 and 2012 elections, but in today's post I'd like to discuss the likelihood of an Obama/Romney victory. The reason for the post was spurred by a recent infographic provided to me by Shirley Zeilinger from Best Colleges Online. It is not uncommon to argue that the youth vote was imperative to Obama's victory in 2008, particularly because they came out in such high numbers. Given that youth typically lean liberal, simply motivating youth to attend the polls (e.g., Rock the Vote efforts) are likely to tip voting in the favor of the Democrats. The info-graphic outlines the demographics and past voting habits about youth voters and uses this information to predict the youth vote again going to Obama with a margin of 17 points (43% to 26%).

The infographic is fascinating and I would recommend reading it in full, but I will highlight here the most prudent parts and discuss how this margin is likely to change. The image is right to point out that though the youth still greatly favor Obama, they are not as motivated and engaged in the 2012 election. This is most likely due to the lack of energy, the urgency, and the morality behind supporting the first black president. Obama was also voted in under a large pretense that he would be able to provide a much sought after change from the leadership of Bush. Failing to meet those expectations, however impossible, may leave a sour taste in the mouths of some voters who feel abandoned, tricked, or disheartened. This could restrict a willingness to vote at all or lead to a changed vote for the Republicans.

Though it is cliche, I feel that the expression "better the devil you know than the devil you don't" does have its applications in politics. As of now, Obama is the only candidate with a united front behind him, a presidential track record, and some political successes that can inspire voters. Romney, on the other hand, is not only still a contested nominee, but is trying wholeheartedly to separate his current platform from his experience as governor of Massachusetts. During his time as governor, his more conservative opinions on topics (e.g., health care, abortion, gay marriage) were compromised in the liberal state. Without this track record and without the unified front from Republicans, Romney is starting out far behind Obama in this election. This is also not to mention his association with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (for a more in-depth discussion, see this post). Capitalizing on the already increased skepticism of politicians, Romney is an unlikely choice for first-time or second-time voters.

What might be a change in the tide for Romney, though, is the approaching Republican National Convention that will explicitly label him the nominee. That support will quell detractors from the Republican party and help start Romney's journey to being treated like a candidate by his fellow party members. Creating a unified front at the end of August, though, leaves Romney little more than two months to capitalize on his nomination. Until then, efforts to attack Romney may continue, and attacks against Obama will continue from multiple hopefuls. After August, though, Romney may garner a more coherent party narrative that is more convincing to the youth than the arguably failed one of "hope" and "change" from Obama.

The power of the youth vote, then, will tip in Obama's favor, but will it ultimately be enough to give him the victory? Only if they come out in as high numbers in 2008, and that is doubtful. They are probably Obama's most important voting group, but I doubt that any marketing techniques can revive the political spirit that was awakened in many youth in 2008. Although the best indicator of future political behavior is past behavior, the infographic also reports that less than half (46%) of youth voters polled are planning on voting in 2012. Without the motivated swarms of youth voters to support him, Obama may be up for a much bigger challenge in 2012 than in 2008.